Interactive Tool

Predict how many interviews you will get!

Curious how your stats stack up? This tool takes four inputs — CBSE, class rank, externships, and research — and returns a predicted interview conversion rate based on a simple model (see Section 6) that was trained on the SDN dataset. Drag the sliders to enter your stats and watch it update.

First, what “interview conversion” actually means: it’s the share of programs you apply to that send you an interview invite — invites ÷ applications. For example, if you apply to 30 programs and 15 invite you, that’s a 50% conversion rate. It is NOT your chance of matching, and it’s NOT how many interviews you’ll get in total (that depends on how many places you apply).

More details and disclaimers

• This tool predicts interviews, not matching. It cannot tell you your odds of matching — the data that was used to train the model contains only people who matched, so the model has never seen a non-matcher. A low estimate here is not a verdict on your candidacy, and a high one is not a guarantee.
• The tool is built entirely from success stories. The model was fit to 73 applicants who matched and chose to post their stats on SDN. That makes it a description of what conversion looked like among matchers, so it is heavily biased.
• The model gets more uncertain at the low end of CBSE scores/rank. Because matchers cluster toward the stronger end of the applicant pool, the model has little data on low scores — so for a CBSE much below the mid-60s it’s extrapolating, and probably reading optimistically. Treat estimates down there as a loose ceiling, not a floor.
• The real uncertainty of model estimates is wide. Two applicants with identical stats can land far apart. The range shown is illustrative — read the output as “somewhere in this neighborhood,” never a precise figure.